Start Analysis: Shane Bieber’s First Outing as Cleveland’s Ace
Pre-Game Analysis
After trading Cory Kluber to the Texas Rangers, Shane Bieber becomes the first pitcher to start Opening Day other than Kluber for Cleveland since 2014 (Justin Masterson). He has established himself as one of the best pitchers on a very talented Cleveland pitching staff and very well could be their starter for many more Opening Days.
Bieber comes into the the first game of the 2020 season with an exceptional 2019 season under his belt. Last season, he had a 3.32 FIP, a 30.1 K % against a 4.1 BB%, and he’s in the 81st percentile amongst pitchers in Whiff %. Bieber’s ability to miss bats is what makes him so good and why he has such a high ceiling. The issue for him is when he isn’t able to generate those swings and misses because when hitters hit him, they hit him hard. He’s in the 8th percentile when it comes to Exit Velocity amongst pitchers, as hitters have an average EV of 90.2 MPH and a 42 Hard Hit % (6th percentile) in 2019 against him. One of his best months last season was August, where he had a 2.83 ERA with 50 strikeouts, 6 walks, but gave up 8 home runs in 6 starts.
Bieber has a fastball that sits around 93 mph and can reach 95 mph with above average vertical break. His slider is a gyro slider that he throws around 85–87 mph. Because it’s a gyro slider, the spin he produces throwing it isn’t going to impact the movement of the ball much at all, making it a great pairing with his fastball. He also has a curveball that he throws just as much as his slider with a bit less horizontal break and more downward-vertical break. Bieber has done some work on his changeup which he plans on using more against lefty hitters. It sits around 87 mph and has slightly above average arm side horizontal break. It’s a pitch he doesn’t use too often as it doesn’t fit his other pitches’ up-down characteristics, but is a great changeup for keeping hitters off balance and allows him to work outside to lefties. Bieber’s ability to tunnel his pitches and command them is what makes him so dominant, especially in this game. Because his slider and curveball have below league average movement, it makes him susceptible to hard hits and homers when he leaves them in the strike zone. When he can hit the corners/the outer parts of the plate with his fastball to get strikes and then follow it up with sliders or curveballs out of the zone, that’s when you know he is on his game.
So Bieber’s game plan going into his first Opening Day start against the Kansas City Royals the same as always for him: Miss bats and Strike them out.
And did he do just that…
Game Performance
Bieber’s first inning was a bit tough. He started off facing the contact hitting Whit Merrifield. I’ll go specifically into that matchup a bit later, but Bieber’s fastball command looked sharp right out the gate, consistently locating it on the outside part of the zone. Merrifield doesn’t let pitches in the strike zone get away from him, as he hit the first fastball hard (92.1 mph EV) but foul. Bieber kept trying to throw a fastball by him, throwing his two hardest pitches of the game (both around 95mph, the upper end for his fastball) but Merrifield kept battling. Bieber ended up hitting Merrifield with a curveball that slipped out of his hand.
Bieber still continued to struggle throwing his curve in the next at bat against Adalberto Mondesi. He continued throwing fastballs and trying to pair it with his curve but was unable to locate it the way he wanted to, even spiking one way in front of home. Luckily, he got Mondesi to make weak contact on a fastball inside. The next at-bat against Jorge Soler didn’t go entirely much better, as he ended up walking him, and then Salvador Perez hit a hanging curve for a single.
Now with men on first and second with two outs (Mondesi was caught stealing during Jorge Soler’s at-bat), Bieber was up against Alex Gordon, who swings and misses consistently on balls below the zone. Bieber started him off with a slider, his first one he threw of the game, but missed a bit too far inside. It was the next pitch, a curveball that bounced in the dirt, but almost got Gordon swinging, that set him up for the rest of the game and where he started to get the feel for the pitch. Bieber then threw a slider that got Gordon swinging over it, followed by a curveball that Gordon was also way out in front of. After throwing a large majority of fastballs the first four at-bats, Bieber threw only sliders and curveballs to Gordon to get the strikeout and end the 1st inning. The following 5 innings were a content gold mine for Rob Friedman/Pitching Ninja.
Shane Bieber’s 1st inning: 5 batters, 1 Hit, 1 K, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 Runs
Shane Bieber’s final 5 innings: 18 batters, 3 hits, 13 K’s, 0 BB, 0 HBP, 0 Runs
Here’s a look at the locations of Bieber’s curveballs in the first inning:
Compared to the 3rd inning, one of his best innings of the game:
He threw his curveball 6 times in the 3rd inning and got hitters to whiff on four of them (Two each on Bubba Starling and Aldaberto Mondesi). This 3rd inning curveball heat map looks pretty identical to innings 2–6. Below is a Tweet from Pitching Ninja showcasing the two curves (pitch 1 and 3 of the at-bat) and a fastball down the middle that froze Bubba Starling from his dominant 3rd inning:
Bieber was able to keep hitters off balanced the entire night. He was never afraid to throw the same pitch multiple times in a row (in the above Bubba Starling at-bat, the first three pitches were curves). His command made the entire Royals lineup look foolish, swinging at sliders/curveballs nowhere near the plate and taking fastballs right down the middle.
Below is a chart showing the release point for all of Bieber’s pitches and another Pitching Ninja tweet showcasing Bieber’s ability to tunnel in action:
The only player who gave Bieber trouble was Whit Merrifield. Merrifield is pretty much Bieber’s kryptonite. He doesn’t swing at pitches outside the zone often and he’s very good at making contact with pitches in the zone. Bieber relies on being able to get whiffs on his slider and curveball outside the zone because if he leaves them in the zone, they end up getting crushed. Merrifield ended up going 1–2 with a HBP. Bieber threw him 16 pitches; 6 were balls (including the HBP), 1 called strike, 2 balls hit into play (single and a lineout), and 6 foul balls. He hit the single at 96.5 mph, the lineout at 95.8 mph, and one of his foul balls at 92.1 mph. Needless to say, he was making Bieber work in each of his at-bats and making him throw lots of pitches which is what makes Merrifield a great leadoff batter.
Here’s a look at how Bieber attacked RHH:
And where he usually gets guys to swing and miss:
Bieber does his best when he throws on that outside part of the plate to righties and getting them to swing outside the zone. When he faces a guy like Merrifield who has a great eye and doesn’t swing and miss much (86th percentile in Whiff %), it can get a bit tricky. For Bieber and many pitchers for that matter, if you can’t get a guy to swing and miss on a pitch, the next best option is to throw where you can get the weakest contact.
On the left is the total number of pitches Merrifield saw in each zone last year. You can see that he was mostly pitched on the lower, outside part of the plate, where Bieber likes to throw to righties the most. On the right is Merrifield’s average exit velocity in each zone, which explains why pitchers threw to him in that location so often:
Now when you look at the charts below where Merrifield actually swings (left) and which of those swings he whiffs on (right), he’s pretty much going to make contact on his swings anywhere except outside the zone:
This ended up being Bieber’s strategy for the game as he continued to hit that general area. Merrifield just did what he did best, continuing to foul off pitches and laying off ones outside the zone. Both of the pitches that he ended up putting into play off Bieber were just slightly higher in the zone, but Bieber worked his strategy against Merrifield as good as he possibly could as there was very little room for error.
Takeaways
In a baseball era where strikeouts and home runs are extremely common, Shane Bieber fits right in. If he pitches like he did in his first start of 2020, he will carve up lineups like the New York Yankees. His concern will be against guys like D.J Lemahieu, Alex Bregman, or other contact hitters that don’t swing at pitches out of the zone. It was good for Bieber that Merrifield’s weakness fit his strategy against right handed hitters but i’ll be interested to observe his strategy against other low strikeout hitters this year for sure and if he finds a way to work his changeup more into his arsenal.
Shane Bieber vs. Kansas City Royals 7/24/20:
6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K’s
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